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Deportivo Merlo vs Comunicaciones Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 22:00

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Comunicaciones

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 40.8% — a clear edge.

+30.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-19.1%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-111.7%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-17.6%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.3%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 40.8% 2.45 +30.6%

Draw 29.3% 35.1% 2.85 -16.5%

Away win 17.4% 33.9% 2.95 -48.7%

Over 2.5 29.5% 35.1% 2.85 -15.9%

Over 3.5 12.4% — — —

BTTS 32.9% 45.5% 2.20 -27.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob32.9%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.4%

#2 0–0 15.0%

#3 2–0✓ 12.5%

#4 1–1 11.7%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Merlo1.3

Comunicaciones0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.5% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.00

COMUNICACIONES · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Merlo (H) 53.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +30.6%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -16.5%

Comunicaciones (A) 17.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -48.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Merlo face Comunicaciones in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Merlo a 53% chance, the draw 29% and Comunicaciones 17%, so Deportivo Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo Merlo and 0.6 for Comunicaciones (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Merlo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Comunicaciones. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Deportivo Merlo vs Comunicaciones Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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