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Busan Transportation vs Changwon City Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Busan Transportation

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Changwon City

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 41.7% — a clear edge.

+23.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-18.9%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.0%1-112.0%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-18.1%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.6%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 41.7% 2.40 +23.1%

Draw 26.1% 34.7% 2.88 -14.9%

Away win 22.6% 36.4% 2.75 -22.7%

Over 2.5 44.4% 46.5% 2.15 -4.5%

Over 3.5 25.6% 22.5% 4.45 +8.3%

BTTS 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Home O1.5 37.8% 36.8% 2.72 +2.8%

Away O1.5 17.9% 32.9% 3.04 -27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 2–0 12.1%

#4 1–1 12.0%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Busan Transportation1.3

Changwon City0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BUSAN TRANSPORTATION · PPG 1.64

CHANGWON CITY · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Busan Transportation (H) 51.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +23.1%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.9%

Changwon City (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Busan Transportation face Changwon City in South-Korea - K3 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Busan Transportation a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Changwon City 23%, so Busan Transportation are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Busan Transportation and 0.7 for Changwon City (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Busan Transportation are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.38 for Changwon City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 4-3.

Busan Transportation vs Changwon City Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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