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Real Madrid vs Alaves Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 19:30

Real Madrid

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alaves

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 87.5% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.2%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.2%1-14.0%1-21.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.4%2-16.7%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.6%3-17.4%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-022.5%4+-114.5%4+-24.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.5% 80.0% 1.25 +9.4%

Draw 8.6% 16.9% 5.90 -49.3%

Away win 3.9% 10.0% 10.00 -61.0%

Over 2.5 76.0% 69.0% 1.45 +10.2%

Over 3.5 56.3% 47.6% 2.10 +18.2%

BTTS 45.8% 55.6% 1.80 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.8%

H 88% / xG 3.3-0.6 / O2.5 76% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.6%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 4–0 9.7%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 2–1✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Madrid3.3

Alaves0.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.0% · O3.5 PROB 56.3%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MADRID · PPG 2.50

ALAVES · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Real Madrid (H) 87.5%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV +9.4%

Draw 8.6%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -49.3%

Alaves (A) 3.9%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -61.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid face Alaves in Spain - La Liga on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid a 88% chance, the draw 9% and Alaves 4%, so Real Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Real Madrid and 0.6 for Alaves (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Alaves. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Real Madrid vs Alaves Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - La Liga Predictions