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Yangpyeong vs Gyeongju HNP Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 09:00

Yangpyeong

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gyeongju HNP

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+10.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.5%0-25.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.7%1-110.5%1-28.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.4%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.9%3-14.5%3-23.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.6%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 35.7% 2.80 +17.6%

Draw 22.7% 32.3% 3.10 -17.8%

Away win 35.3% 44.4% 2.25 -20.6%

Over 2.5 63.1% 50.0% 2.00 +26.2%

Over 3.5 39.4% 28.6% 3.50 +37.9%

BTTS 63.2% 57.1% 1.75 +10.6%

Home O1.5 47.4% 36.0% 2.78 +31.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 43.1% 2.32 +12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–0 5.4%

#5 1–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yangpyeong1.6

Gyeongju HNP1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

YANGPYEONG · PPG 1.29

GYEONGJU HNP · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Yangpyeong (H) 42.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +17.6%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.8%

Gyeongju HNP (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yangpyeong face Gyeongju HNP in South-Korea - K3 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yangpyeong a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Gyeongju HNP 35%, so Yangpyeong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Yangpyeong and 1.6 for Gyeongju HNP (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yangpyeong are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Gyeongju HNP. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.9%. This match finished 3-3.

Yangpyeong vs Gyeongju HNP Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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