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Girona vs Real Betis Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 19:30

Girona

PPG 1.47 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Betis

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.2%0-26.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.4%1-112.4%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.3%2-18.3%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.8%3-13.7%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 40.3% 2.48 -6.8%

Draw 26.0% 30.3% 3.30 -14.2%

Away win 36.3% 36.2% 2.76 +0.2%

Over 2.5 49.7% 52.6% 1.90 -5.6%

Over 3.5 27.8% 30.8% 3.25 -9.7%

BTTS 54.1% 58.8% 1.70 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.1%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 9.4%

#3 0–1 9.2%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Girona1.3

Real Betis1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GIRONA · PPG 1.47

REAL BETIS · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Girona (H) 37.6%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -6.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.2%

Real Betis (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Girona face Real Betis in Spain - La Liga on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Girona a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Real Betis 36%, so Girona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Girona and 1.3 for Real Betis (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Girona are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.25 for Real Betis. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Girona vs Real Betis Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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