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Curtin University vs Subiaco Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 09:00

Curtin University

PPG 0.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Subiaco

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.5%0-26.0%0-33.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.8%1-110.9%1-28.7%1-34.7%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.0%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.4%3-13.9%3-23.1%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 37.0% 2.70 -4.2%

Draw 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -15.3%

Away win 41.2% 45.5% 2.20 -9.4%

Over 2.5 63.4% 63.7% 1.57 -0.5%

Over 3.5 39.5% 44.2% 2.26 -10.7%

BTTS 62.9% 69.4% 1.44 -9.4%

Home O1.5 45.4% 48.1% 2.08 -5.6%

Away O1.5 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 25.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.9%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2✓ 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Curtin University1.5

Subiaco1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CURTIN UNIVERSITY · PPG 0.00

SUBIACO · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Curtin University (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -4.2%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.3%

Subiaco (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Curtin University face Subiaco in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Curtin University a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Subiaco 41%, so Subiaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Curtin University and 1.6 for Subiaco (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Curtin University are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Subiaco. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Curtin University vs Subiaco Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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