Stockport vs Mansfield Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 36 Edgeley Park· Stockport Tuesday, April 21, 2026 18:45

Stockport PPG 2.00

0-1 MISS

Mansfield PPG 1.15

Away· +9.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Stockport face Mansfield in England - League One on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stockport a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Mansfield 21%, so Stockport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Stockport and 0.9 for Mansfield (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stockport are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.15 for Mansfield. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.9%

Odds: 1.56 EV: -14.4%

Draw 24.1%

Odds: 4.20 EV: +1.2%

Away 21.0%

Odds: 5.20 EV: +9.2%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.9% Odds: 1.57 -23.2%

Over 3.5 27.0% Odds: 2.45 -33.9%

BTTS 49.7% Odds: 1.60 -20.5%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Stockport

1.69

Mansfield

0.94

Model SuggestionHome -14.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -14.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+9.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=54.9%