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Stockport vs Mansfield Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 36 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Stockport

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Mansfield

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.8%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.5%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.4%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 64.1% 1.56 -14.4%

Draw 24.1% 23.8% 4.20 +1.2%

Away win 21.0% 19.2% 5.20 +9.2%

Over 2.5 48.9% 63.7% 1.57 -23.2%

Over 3.5 27.0% 40.8% 2.45 -33.9%

BTTS 49.7% 62.5% 1.60 -20.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.7%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.2%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stockport1.7

Mansfield0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKPORT · PPG 2.00

MANSFIELD · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=54.9%

Win probability 1X2

Stockport (H) 54.9%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -14.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.2%

Mansfield (A) 21.0%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stockport face Mansfield in England - League One on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stockport a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Mansfield 21%, so Stockport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Stockport and 0.9 for Mansfield (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stockport are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.15 for Mansfield. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Stockport vs Mansfield Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League One Predictions