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Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 00:30

Alianza Valledupar

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Deportivo Pereira

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-18.7%0-22.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-111.9%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-18.2%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.7%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 62.1% 1.61 -19.2%

Draw 26.5% 27.8% 3.60 -2.8%

Away win 23.3% 16.9% 5.90 +22.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 46.5% 2.15 -8.2%

Over 3.5 20.6% 25.0% 4.00 -10.6%

BTTS 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

Home O1.5 37.8% 54.1% 1.85 -30.1%

Away O1.5 17.9% 20.0% 5.00 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 0–0✓ 13.0%

#3 2–0 12.3%

#4 1–1 11.9%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Valledupar1.4

Deportivo Pereira0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA VALLEDUPAR · PPG 1.00

DEPORTIVO PEREIRA · PPG 0.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Valledupar (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -19.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.8%

Deportivo Pereira (A) 23.3%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Valledupar face Deportivo Pereira in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Valledupar a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Pereira 23%, so Alianza Valledupar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Alianza Valledupar and 0.7 for Deportivo Pereira (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Valledupar are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Deportivo Pereira. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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