Today / England - League One / Stevenage vs Barnsley

Stevenage vs Barnsley Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 7 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Stevenage

PPG 2.05 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Barnsley

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.2%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.6%1-111.1%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.8%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 58.5% 1.71 -3.0%

Draw 23.2% 27.8% 3.60 -16.5%

Away win 20.0% 20.6% 4.85 -3.0%

Over 2.5 51.3% 48.8% 2.05 +5.2%

Over 3.5 29.2% 26.7% 3.75 +9.5%

BTTS 51.0% 51.8% 1.93 -1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.0%

H 57% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 11.6%

#2 1–1 11.1%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stevenage1.8

Barnsley1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STEVENAGE · PPG 2.05

BARNSLEY · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.05) vs P(Home)=56.7%

Win probability 1X2

Stevenage (H) 56.7%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -3.0%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -16.5%

Barnsley (A) 20.0%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stevenage face Barnsley in England - League One on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stevenage a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Barnsley 20%, so Stevenage are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Stevenage and 1.0 for Barnsley (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stevenage are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 1.15 for Barnsley. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Stevenage vs Barnsley Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League One Predictions