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Doncaster vs Lincoln City Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 40 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Doncaster

PPG 1.52 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Lincoln City

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+24.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-111.3%0-210.0%0-35.9%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.2%1-111.1%1-29.8%1-35.8%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.1%2-15.4%2-24.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.6% 33.3% 3.00 -38.2%

Draw 23.3% 28.6% 3.50 -18.4%

Away win 56.1% 45.0% 2.22 +24.5%

Over 2.5 51.9% 51.3% 1.95 +1.2%

Over 3.5 29.8% 29.0% 3.45 +2.8%

BTTS 51.8% 57.8% 1.73 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob51.8%

A 56% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 11.3%

#2 1–1 11.1%

#3 0–2✓ 10.0%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Doncaster1.0

Lincoln City1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DONCASTER · PPG 1.52

LINCOLN CITY · PPG 1.86

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.52) vs Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Doncaster (H) 20.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -38.2%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -18.4%

Lincoln City (A) 56.1%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Doncaster face Lincoln City in England - League One on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Doncaster a 21% chance, the draw 23% and Lincoln City 56%, so Lincoln City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Doncaster and 1.8 for Lincoln City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Doncaster are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.86 for Lincoln City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Doncaster vs Lincoln City Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League One Predictions