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Queretaro U21 vs Toluca U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:00

Queretaro U21

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Toluca U21

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.6%0-25.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.8%1-112.2%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.8%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.3%3-14.2%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 22.2% 4.50 +81.8%

Draw 25.9% 25.6% 3.90 +0.6%

Away win 33.8% 63.7% 1.57 -46.9%

Over 2.5 53.4% 59.9% 1.67 -10.8%

Over 3.5 30.9% 37.5% 2.67 -17.5%

BTTS 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 29.4% 3.40 +36.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 62.1% 1.61 -40.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Queretaro U211.4

Toluca U211.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

QUERETARO U21 · PPG 1.32

TOLUCA U21 · PPG 1.41

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Queretaro U21 (H) 40.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +81.8%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +0.6%

Toluca U21 (A) 33.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -46.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Queretaro U21 face Toluca U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Queretaro U21 a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Toluca U21 34%, so Queretaro U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Queretaro U21 and 1.3 for Toluca U21 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Queretaro U21 are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.41 for Toluca U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +60.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Queretaro U21 vs Toluca U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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