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Bradford vs Plymouth Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 40 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Bradford

PPG 2.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Plymouth

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.3%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.0%1-111.1%1-26.1%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.2%3-15.7%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.8%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 40.8% 2.45 +29.1%

Draw 23.5% 29.4% 3.40 -20.1%

Away win 23.8% 36.8% 2.72 -35.3%

Over 2.5 54.7% 54.1% 1.85 +1.2%

Over 3.5 32.4% 31.3% 3.20 +3.7%

BTTS 55.5% 59.9% 1.67 -7.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.5%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.1%

#2 1–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bradford1.8

Plymouth1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BRADFORD · PPG 2.29

PLYMOUTH · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.29) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Bradford (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +29.1%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -20.1%

Plymouth (A) 23.8%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -35.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bradford face Plymouth in England - League One on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bradford a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Plymouth 24%, so Bradford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bradford and 1.1 for Plymouth (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bradford are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.67 for Plymouth. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Bradford vs Plymouth Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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