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Deportivo Madryn vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 22:00

Deportivo Madryn

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Atletico Mitre

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-15.4%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.0%1-110.1%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.1%3-15.9%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-14.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 54.1% 1.85 +2.9%

Draw 22.7% 33.9% 2.95 -19.8%

Away win 21.7% 22.7% 4.40 -2.7%

Over 2.5 51.2% 35.1% 2.85 +45.9%

Over 3.5 30.9% 16.7% 6.00 +85.4%

BTTS 49.1% 42.6% 2.35 +15.4%

Home O1.5 54.9% 40.8% 2.45 +34.5%

Away O1.5 17.9% 20.0% 5.00 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 294 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.1%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Madryn1.9

Atletico Mitre0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MADRYN · PPG 1.73

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Madryn (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +2.9%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -19.8%

Atletico Mitre (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Madryn face Atletico Mitre in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Madryn a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Atletico Mitre 22%, so Deportivo Madryn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Deportivo Madryn and 0.7 for Atletico Mitre (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Madryn are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.83 for Atletico Mitre. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +85.4%. This match finished 4-0.

Deportivo Madryn vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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