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Jaguares vs Chico Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 21:05

Jaguares

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Chico

PPG 0.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+21.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-13.9%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.6%1-18.5%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.9%3-16.7%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-16.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 52.6% 1.90 +21.4%

Draw 20.9% 30.8% 3.25 -19.3%

Away win 15.2% 23.3% 4.30 -20.8%

Over 2.5 57.9% 42.0% 2.38 +37.8%

Over 3.5 35.4% 22.2% 4.50 +59.3%

BTTS 52.0% 47.6% 2.10 +9.2%

Home O1.5 63.8% 45.5% 2.20 +40.4%

Away O1.5 17.9% 25.0% 4.00 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.0%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 1–0✓ 12.6%

#3 1–1 8.5%

#4 3–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaguares2.2

Chico0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGUARES · PPG 1.42

CHICO · PPG 0.08

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jaguares (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +21.4%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -19.3%

Chico (A) 15.2%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaguares face Chico in Colombia - Primera A on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaguares a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Chico 15%, so Jaguares are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Jaguares and 0.7 for Chico (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaguares are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 0.08 for Chico. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +59.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Jaguares vs Chico Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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