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Deportivo Capiata vs Guairena FC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 19:00

Deportivo Capiata

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

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0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Guairena FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.0%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.5%1-112.2%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.3%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 43.5% 2.30 +3.7%

Draw 26.0% 33.3% 3.00 -13.2%

Away win 28.9% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

Over 2.5 50.2% 42.6% 2.35 +18.0%

Over 3.5 29.9% 23.8% 4.20 +15.3%

BTTS 53.0% 52.1% 1.92 +1.8%

Home O1.5 40.0% 38.9% 2.57 +2.8%

Away O1.5 33.8% 32.3% 3.10 +4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–0✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Capiata1.5

Guairena FC1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO CAPIATA · PPG 1.89

GUAIRENA FC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Capiata (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +3.7%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.2%

Guairena FC (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Capiata face Guairena FC in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Capiata a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Guairena FC 29%, so Deportivo Capiata are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Deportivo Capiata and 1.1 for Guairena FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Capiata are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.00 for Guairena FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Deportivo Capiata vs Guairena FC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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