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Real Betis vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 19:00

Real Betis

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Real Sociedad

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+19.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.1%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-110.0%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.6%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.1%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 48.1% 2.08 +14.4%

Draw 22.2% 29.9% 3.35 -15.4%

Away win 22.8% 29.0% 3.45 -12.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 50.0% 2.00 +19.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 28.6% 3.50 +28.1%

BTTS 54.7% 56.5% 1.77 -3.2%

Home O1.5 54.9% 47.6% 2.10 +15.3%

Away O1.5 32.4% 33.3% 3.00 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0✓ 9.7%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Betis2.0

Real Sociedad1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL BETIS · PPG 1.75

REAL SOCIEDAD · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Betis (H) 55.0%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +14.4%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -15.4%

Real Sociedad (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Betis face Real Sociedad in Spain - La Liga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Betis a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Real Sociedad 23%, so Real Betis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Real Betis and 1.0 for Real Sociedad (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Betis are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.10 for Real Sociedad. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Real Betis vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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