Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Pontypridd Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds

Pontypridd Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:30

Pontypridd Town

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Trethomas Bluebirds

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.9%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.2%1-17.4%1-24.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.8%2-19.3%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.5%3-17.8%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-18.9%4+-25.3%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 59.9% 1.67 -2.5%

Draw 19.9% 27.8% 3.60 -17.0%

Away win 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Over 2.5 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Over 3.5 43.5% 42.7% 2.34 +1.8%

BTTS 62.2% 64.5% 1.55 -3.6%

Home O1.5 65.1% 64.1% 1.56 +1.6%

Away O1.5 36.1% 36.2% 2.76 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.2%

H 58% / xG 2.5-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1✓ 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 1–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pontypridd Town2.5

Trethomas Bluebirds1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTYPRIDD TOWN · PPG 1.63

TRETHOMAS BLUEBIRDS · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pontypridd Town (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -2.5%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -17.0%

Trethomas Bluebirds (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pontypridd Town face Trethomas Bluebirds in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pontypridd Town a 58% chance, the draw 20% and Trethomas Bluebirds 22%, so Pontypridd Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Pontypridd Town and 1.2 for Trethomas Bluebirds (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pontypridd Town are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.86 for Trethomas Bluebirds. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Pontypridd Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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