Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Newport City vs Baglan Dragons

Newport City vs Baglan Dragons Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:30

Newport City

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Baglan Dragons

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-16.5%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.3%1-111.1%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.4%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-15.3%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 63.7% 1.57 -13.3%

Draw 23.2% 27.8% 3.60 -9.9%

Away win 21.6% 20.8% 4.80 +2.2%

Over 2.5 50.2% 61.7% 1.62 -18.7%

Over 3.5 29.4% 40.2% 2.49 -16.1%

BTTS 49.1% 61.7% 1.62 -20.5%

Home O1.5 48.8% 64.5% 1.55 -24.4%

Away O1.5 19.5% 29.2% 3.42 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 2–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newport City1.7

Baglan Dragons0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWPORT CITY · PPG 1.13

BAGLAN DRAGONS · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Newport City (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -13.3%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.9%

Baglan Dragons (A) 21.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newport City face Baglan Dragons in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newport City a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Baglan Dragons 22%, so Newport City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Newport City and 0.8 for Baglan Dragons (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newport City are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.23 for Baglan Dragons. This match finished 0-1.

Newport City vs Baglan Dragons Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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