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San Telmo vs Deportivo Moron Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:30

San Telmo

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Deportivo Moron

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-111.9%0-26.9%0-32.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.5%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.4%2-17.4%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.4%3-12.8%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 35.7% 2.80 -2.8%

Draw 26.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.6%

Away win 38.4% 37.7% 2.65 +1.8%

Over 2.5 50.1% 33.3% 3.00 +50.3%

Over 3.5 28.0% 15.4% 6.50 +49.2%

BTTS 51.5% 43.5% 2.30 +18.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 28.6% 3.50 +7.1%

Away O1.5 35.6% 29.9% 3.35 +19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.5%

A 38% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Telmo1.1

Deportivo Moron1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN TELMO · PPG 1.42

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.04, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Telmo (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -2.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.6%

Deportivo Moron (A) 38.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Telmo face Deportivo Moron in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Telmo a 35% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Moron 38%, so Deportivo Moron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for San Telmo and 1.2 for Deportivo Moron (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Telmo are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportivo Moron. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +50.3%. This match finished 2-2.

San Telmo vs Deportivo Moron Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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