Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Mold Alexandra vs Buckley Town

Mold Alexandra vs Buckley Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Mold Alexandra

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Buckley Town

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.8%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.1%1-18.6%1-25.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.0%3-17.2%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-16.8%4+-24.1%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Draw 22.1% 27.8% 3.60 -12.3%

Away win 23.3% 26.7% 3.75 -7.6%

Over 2.5 64.7% 66.7% 1.50 -2.9%

Over 3.5 43.5% 48.1% 2.08 -9.5%

BTTS 61.3% 71.4% 1.40 -14.2%

Home O1.5 65.1% 65.8% 1.52 -1.1%

Away O1.5 37.1% 42.0% 2.38 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mold Alexandra2.2

Buckley Town1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MOLD ALEXANDRA · PPG 1.54

BUCKLEY TOWN · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mold Alexandra (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -7.2%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.3%

Buckley Town (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mold Alexandra face Buckley Town in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mold Alexandra a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Buckley Town 23%, so Mold Alexandra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Mold Alexandra and 1.2 for Buckley Town (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mold Alexandra are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.91 for Buckley Town. This match finished 1-0.

Mold Alexandra vs Buckley Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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