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Acassuso vs Godoy Cruz Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Acassuso

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Godoy Cruz

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-113.0%0-25.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-113.4%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.0%2-16.9%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.8%3-12.4%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 28.2% 3.55 +31.4%

Draw 29.3% 34.5% 2.90 -9.0%

Away win 33.7% 47.6% 2.10 -29.2%

Over 2.5 42.7% 37.7% 2.65 +13.2%

Over 3.5 22.1% 18.2% 5.50 +12.9%

BTTS 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% 25.3% 3.95 +20.9%

Away O1.5 22.8% 38.5% 2.60 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

D 29% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.2%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 0–1✓ 13.0%

#4 1–1 13.4%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Acassuso1.0

Godoy Cruz0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ACASSUSO · PPG 1.36

GODOY CRUZ · PPG 0.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 1.89 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Acassuso (H) 37.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +31.4%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.0%

Godoy Cruz (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -29.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Acassuso face Godoy Cruz in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Acassuso a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Godoy Cruz 34%, so Acassuso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Acassuso and 0.9 for Godoy Cruz (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Acassuso are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.82 for Godoy Cruz. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Acassuso vs Godoy Cruz Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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