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Velez Mostar vs Siroki Brijeg Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:30

Velez Mostar

PPG 1.57 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Siroki Brijeg

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-16.7%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.0%1-19.9%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.5%2-17.3%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.6%3-13.6%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.2% 61.7% 1.62 +0.8%

Draw 26.1% 32.3% 3.10 -19.1%

Away win 11.7% 17.2% 5.80 -32.1%

Over 2.5 31.0% — — —

Over 3.5 13.4% — — —

BTTS 29.1% 42.0% 2.38 -30.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob29.1%

H 62% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.0%

#2 2–0 15.5%

#3 0–0 14.2%

#4 1–1 9.9%

#5 3–0✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Velez Mostar1.5

Siroki Brijeg0.5

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VELEZ MOSTAR · PPG 1.57

SIROKI BRIJEG · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Velez Mostar (H) 62.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +0.8%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.1%

Siroki Brijeg (A) 11.7%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -32.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Velez Mostar face Siroki Brijeg in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velez Mostar a 62% chance, the draw 26% and Siroki Brijeg 12%, so Velez Mostar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Velez Mostar and 0.5 for Siroki Brijeg (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velez Mostar are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.93 for Siroki Brijeg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Velez Mostar vs Siroki Brijeg Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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