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Stockholm Internazionale vs Järfälla Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:00

Stockholm Internazionale

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Järfälla

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.7%0-21.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.6%1-15.2%1-22.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.0%2-18.0%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-18.2%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-113.5%4+-27.7%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.6% 78.1% 1.28 -12.2%

Draw 16.3% 18.5% 5.40 -7.2%

Away win 15.0% 12.5% 8.00 +12.0%

Over 2.5 69.8% 72.5% 1.38 -3.7%

Over 3.5 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

BTTS 61.3% 59.9% 1.67 +2.4%

Home O1.5 78.4% 80.0% 1.25 -2.0%

Away O1.5 35.6% 27.0% 3.70 +31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 69% / xG 3.1-1.1 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 3–0 7.2%

#4 1–1 5.2%

#5 2–0✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stockholm Internazionale3.1

Järfälla1.1

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKHOLM INTERNAZIONALE · PPG 2.11

JÄRFÄLLA · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.94 for Home, form 2.11 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Stockholm Internazionale (H) 68.6%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -12.2%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -7.2%

Järfälla (A) 15.0%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stockholm Internazionale face Järfälla in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stockholm Internazionale a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Järfälla 15%, so Stockholm Internazionale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Stockholm Internazionale and 1.1 for Järfälla (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stockholm Internazionale are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.00 for Järfälla. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +31.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Stockholm Internazionale vs Järfälla Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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