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Sölvesborg vs Karlshamn Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:00

Sölvesborg

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Karlshamn

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.6%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.8%1-18.3%1-24.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.0%3-17.5%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-17.5%4+-24.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 65.4% 1.53 -13.6%

Draw 21.5% 24.4% 4.10 -7.1%

Away win 22.0% 20.8% 4.80 +3.4%

Over 2.5 64.8% 71.4% 1.40 -9.3%

Over 3.5 43.5% 51.3% 1.95 -15.2%

BTTS 61.3% 70.4% 1.42 -13.0%

Home O1.5 65.1% 72.5% 1.38 -10.2%

Away O1.5 34.7% 39.2% 2.55 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–2 4.5%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sölvesborg2.3

Karlshamn1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SÖLVESBORG · PPG 1.11

KARLSHAMN · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sölvesborg (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -13.6%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.1%

Karlshamn (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sölvesborg face Karlshamn in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sölvesborg a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Karlshamn 22%, so Sölvesborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Sölvesborg and 1.1 for Karlshamn (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sölvesborg are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.50 for Karlshamn. This match finished 2-1.

Sölvesborg vs Karlshamn Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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