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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:45

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

PPG 1.04 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

PPG 1.51 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-112.6%0-28.2%0-33.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.9%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.1%2-16.7%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.3%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 34.7% 2.88 -11.6%

Draw 26.6% 30.3% 3.30 -7.3%

Away win 42.7% 47.6% 2.10 -10.3%

Over 2.5 50.1% 52.6% 1.90 -4.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 32.8% 3.05 -8.6%

BTTS 51.9% 60.2% 1.66 -13.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 36.8% 2.72 -16.8%

Away O1.5 40.0% 49.0% 2.04 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.9%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 12.6%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa1.0

Etar Veliko Tarnovo1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV G. ORYAHOVITSA · PPG 1.04

ETAR VELIKO TARNOVO · PPG 1.51

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.28, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (H) 30.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -11.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.3%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (A) 42.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa face Etar Veliko Tarnovo in Bulgaria - Second League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Etar Veliko Tarnovo 43%, so Etar Veliko Tarnovo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and 1.3 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.51 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo. This match finished 2-1.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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