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PKKU vs JJK Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:30

PKKU

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

JJK

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.0%0-23.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.3%1-18.4%1-26.5%1-33.4%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.0%3-16.2%3-24.9%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-15.4%4+-24.2%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 45.5% 2.20 +7.8%

Draw 22.2% 27.8% 3.60 -12.0%

Away win 28.8% 38.2% 2.62 -14.7%

Over 2.5 65.0% 73.5% 1.36 -11.6%

Over 3.5 43.5% 54.6% 1.83 -20.4%

BTTS 63.2% 75.2% 1.33 -15.9%

Home O1.5 59.6% 61.7% 1.62 -3.5%

Away O1.5 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 6.5%

#4 2–2✓ 6.9%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PKKU2.1

JJK1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PKKU · PPG 1.60

JJK · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

PKKU (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +7.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.0%

JJK (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

PKKU face JJK in Finland - Ykkonen on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PKKU a 49% chance, the draw 22% and JJK 29%, so PKKU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for PKKU and 1.6 for JJK (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PKKU are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.30 for JJK. This match finished 2-2.

PKKU vs JJK Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkonen Predictions