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FC Minsk vs FC Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:00

FC Minsk

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

FC Vitebsk

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-110.1%0-24.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.6%1-113.0%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.8%2-18.4%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.8%3-13.6%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 40.3% 2.48 +9.6%

Draw 27.5% 33.4% 2.99 -10.7%

Away win 28.3% 33.4% 2.99 -9.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.7% 2.19 -1.9%

Over 3.5 25.6% 27.0% 3.70 -3.2%

BTTS 49.1% 54.1% 1.85 -9.2%

Home O1.5 37.8% 39.2% 2.55 -3.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 33.9% 2.95 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–1✓ 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Minsk1.3

FC Vitebsk1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FC MINSK · PPG 1.67

FC VITEBSK · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Minsk (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +9.6%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 2.99 · IMPLIED 33.4% EV -10.7%

FC Vitebsk (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.99 · IMPLIED 33.4% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Minsk face FC Vitebsk in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Minsk a 44% chance, the draw 28% and FC Vitebsk 28%, so FC Minsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FC Minsk and 1.0 for FC Vitebsk (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Minsk are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.20 for FC Vitebsk. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 0-1.

FC Minsk vs FC Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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