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Al-Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 14:15

Al-Gharafa

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Shahaniya

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.6%0-23.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.4%1-110.4%1-26.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.8%3-16.0%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.2%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 26.5% — — —

Over 2.5 59.9% — — —

Over 3.5 36.8% — — —

BTTS 61.3% — — —

Home O1.5 54.9% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Gharafa1.9

Al Shahaniya1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-GHARAFA · PPG 1.82

AL SHAHANIYA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al-Gharafa (H) 50.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Shahaniya (A) 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Gharafa face Al Shahaniya in Qatar - Stars League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Gharafa a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Al Shahaniya 27%, so Al-Gharafa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Al-Gharafa and 1.2 for Al Shahaniya (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Gharafa are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.00 for Al Shahaniya. This match finished 2-1.

Al-Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

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