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Sydney FC U23 vs Rockdale City Suns Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 09:30

Sydney FC U23

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rockdale City Suns

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.0%0-26.9%0-33.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.7%1-111.7%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.0%2-17.6%2-25.8%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.2%3-13.3%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 23.8% 4.20 +45.7%

Draw 24.1% 27.4% 3.65 -7.2%

Away win 41.3% 58.8% 1.70 -29.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 60.6% 1.65 -11.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.5% 2.60 -17.8%

BTTS 56.1% 62.5% 1.60 -10.2%

Home O1.5 37.8% 34.7% 2.88 +8.9%

Away O1.5 48.5% 60.6% 1.65 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob56.1%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1✓ 7.6%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney FC U231.3

Rockdale City Suns1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY FC U23 · PPG 1.50

ROCKDALE CITY SUNS · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sydney FC U23 (H) 34.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +45.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.2%

Rockdale City Suns (A) 41.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney FC U23 face Rockdale City Suns in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney FC U23 a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Rockdale City Suns 41%, so Rockdale City Suns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sydney FC U23 and 1.5 for Rockdale City Suns (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney FC U23 are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.64 for Rockdale City Suns. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Sydney FC U23 vs Rockdale City Suns Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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