Today / Brazil - Serie B / Novorizontino vs America Mineiro

Novorizontino vs America Mineiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 23 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 23:30

Novorizontino

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

America Mineiro

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-13.9%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.4%1-18.3%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.4%3-16.4%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-15.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 64.5% 1.55 -0.5%

Draw 21.1% 26.7% 3.75 -12.5%

Away win 14.8% 16.0% 6.25 -4.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 47.6% 2.10 +13.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.3% 3.80 +20.1%

BTTS 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Home O1.5 62.2% 56.5% 1.77 +10.1%

Away O1.5 16.6% 20.0% 5.00 -10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.5%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 3–0✓ 10.4%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino2.2

America Mineiro0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.70

AMERICA MINEIRO · PPG 0.45

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 1.70 vs 0.45 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino (H) 64.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -0.5%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.5%

America Mineiro (A) 14.8%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino face America Mineiro in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino a 64% chance, the draw 21% and America Mineiro 15%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Novorizontino and 0.6 for America Mineiro (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.45 for America Mineiro. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Novorizontino vs America Mineiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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