Today / Colombia - Primera B / Real Cartagena vs Bogota FC

Real Cartagena vs Bogota FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 22:45

Real Cartagena

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bogota FC

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-18.1%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-112.1%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 67.6% 1.48 -25.7%

Draw 26.4% 25.6% 3.90 +1.8%

Away win 23.4% 16.7% 6.00 +24.2%

Over 2.5 50.1% 54.1% 1.85 -7.3%

Over 3.5 28.0% 31.3% 3.20 -6.2%

BTTS 49.1% 51.8% 1.93 -5.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 60.6% 1.65 -34.0%

Away O1.5 22.6% 23.1% 4.33 -1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0✓ 10.9%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Cartagena1.5

Bogota FC0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL CARTAGENA · PPG 2.00

BOGOTA FC · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Cartagena (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -25.7%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.8%

Bogota FC (A) 23.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Cartagena face Bogota FC in Colombia - Primera B on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Cartagena a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Bogota FC 23%, so Real Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Real Cartagena and 0.8 for Bogota FC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Cartagena are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.36 for Bogota FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Real Cartagena vs Bogota FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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