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Athletic Club vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 23 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 22:30

Athletic Club

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

CRB

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.9%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.4%1-112.1%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.3%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.7%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 42.4% 2.36 +15.9%

Draw 26.7% 32.3% 3.10 -10.3%

Away win 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.0%

Over 2.5 50.1% 44.4% 2.25 +12.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 23.8% 4.20 +10.8%

BTTS 51.0% 54.1% 1.85 -5.7%

Home O1.5 41.6% 40.0% 2.50 +4.0%

Away O1.5 22.8% 33.3% 3.00 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.0%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club1.5

CRB0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.73

CRB · PPG 1.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +15.9%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.3%

CRB (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face CRB in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 49% chance, the draw 27% and CRB 24%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Athletic Club and 0.9 for CRB (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.64 for CRB. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Athletic Club vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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