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Leones FC vs Real Cundinamarca Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 22:00

Leones FC

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Real Cundinamarca

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-116.2%0-28.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.7%1-113.3%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.2%2-15.4%2-22.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.4%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 33.3% 3.00 -6.1%

Draw 32.9% 33.9% 2.95 -2.9%

Away win 35.8% 42.9% 2.33 -16.6%

Over 2.5 38.0% 38.5% 2.60 -1.2%

Over 3.5 18.5% 21.3% 4.70 -7.8%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 29.4% 3.40 +4.0%

Away O1.5 32.9% 36.4% 2.75 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.6%

D 33% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.5%

#2 1–1✓ 13.3%

#3 0–1 16.2%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones FC0.8

Real Cundinamarca1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES FC · PPG 0.75

REAL CUNDINAMARCA · PPG 0.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.23, combined xG 1.87 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leones FC (H) 31.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.1%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -2.9%

Real Cundinamarca (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones FC face Real Cundinamarca in Colombia - Primera B on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones FC a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Real Cundinamarca 36%, so Real Cundinamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Leones FC and 1.0 for Real Cundinamarca (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones FC are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.56 for Real Cundinamarca. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Leones FC vs Real Cundinamarca Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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