Today / Colombia - Primera B / Real Santander vs Barranquilla

Real Santander vs Barranquilla Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 20:30

Real Santander

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Barranquilla

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.7%0-28.4%0-34.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.6%1-111.9%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.3%2-16.7%2-25.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 42.9% 2.33 -27.5%

Draw 24.6% 30.3% 3.30 -11.3%

Away win 44.3% 37.0% 2.70 +19.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 33.2% 31.3% 3.20 +6.2%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 30.6% 45.5% 2.20 -32.7%

Away O1.5 48.5% 40.8% 2.45 +18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.7%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Santander1.1

Barranquilla1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SANTANDER · PPG 0.78

BARRANQUILLA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Santander (H) 31.1%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -27.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.3%

Barranquilla (A) 44.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Santander face Barranquilla in Colombia - Primera B on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Santander a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Barranquilla 44%, so Barranquilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Real Santander and 1.6 for Barranquilla (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Santander are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Barranquilla. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +40.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Real Santander vs Barranquilla Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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