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Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 2 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 19:00

Rayo Vallecano

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

LDL ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Alaves

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDW ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.0%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.9%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 44.6% 2.24 -3.7%

Draw 27.7% 33.6% 2.98 -10.5%

Away win 29.3% 29.0% 3.45 +0.7%

Over 2.5 44.8% 38.5% 2.60 +16.5%

Over 3.5 27.8% 19.0% 5.25 +27.6%

BTTS 49.1% 46.5% 2.15 +5.6%

Home O1.5 39.8% 37.7% 2.65 +5.5%

Away O1.5 32.3% 26.7% 3.75 +21.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rayo Vallecano1.4

Alaves1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RAYO VALLECANO · PPG 1.58

ALAVES · PPG 1.07

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rayo Vallecano (H) 43.0%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -3.7%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -10.5%

Alaves (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rayo Vallecano face Alaves in Spain - La Liga on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rayo Vallecano a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Alaves 29%, so Rayo Vallecano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.0 for Alaves (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.07 for Alaves. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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