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Al Minaa Basra vs Zakho Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 2 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 18:00

Al Minaa Basra

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWL ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Zakho

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-114.0%0-27.3%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.0%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.3%2-16.5%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 35.7% 2.80 -10.7%

Draw 35.7% 35.7% 2.80 -0.0%

Away win 32.4% 40.8% 2.45 -20.6%

Over 2.5 37.5% 42.0% 2.38 -10.8%

Over 3.5 18.8% 23.1% 4.33 -11.2%

BTTS 43.6% 51.8% 1.93 -15.8%

Home O1.5 30.6% 32.9% 3.04 -7.0%

Away O1.5 32.5% 37.3% 2.68 -12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob43.6%

D 36% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Minaa Basra1.0

Zakho1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL MINAA BASRA · PPG 1.28

ZAKHO · PPG 1.32

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 2.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Minaa Basra (H) 31.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.7%

Draw 35.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.0%

Zakho (A) 32.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Minaa Basra face Zakho in Iraq - Iraqi League on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Minaa Basra a 32% chance, the draw 36% and Zakho 32%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for Al Minaa Basra and 1.0 for Zakho (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Minaa Basra are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.32 for Zakho. This match finished 2-1.

Al Minaa Basra vs Zakho Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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