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Benfica U23 vs Rio Ave U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 2 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 16:00

Benfica U23

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rio Ave U23

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.5%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.9%1-111.1%1-26.9%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.5%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.3%3-15.4%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 56.5% 1.77 -17.0%

Draw 24.3% 27.4% 3.65 -6.8%

Away win 28.8% 26.3% 3.80 +5.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 36.4% 2.75 +0.7%

BTTS 60.3% 61.7% 1.62 -2.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 57.8% 1.73 -15.6%

Away O1.5 37.3% 35.7% 2.80 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.3%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benfica U231.7

Rio Ave U231.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BENFICA U23 · PPG 1.87

RIO AVE U23 · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Benfica U23 (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -17.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.8%

Rio Ave U23 (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benfica U23 face Rio Ave U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benfica U23 a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Rio Ave U23 29%, so Benfica U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Benfica U23 and 1.2 for Rio Ave U23 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benfica U23 are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.35 for Rio Ave U23. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Benfica U23 vs Rio Ave U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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