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Xorazm vs Lokomotiv Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 15:00

Xorazm

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lokomotiv

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.8%0-26.5%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.5%1-112.5%1-28.3%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.0%2-18.0%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.6%3-13.4%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 30.3% 3.30 +20.4%

Draw 26.2% 32.3% 3.10 -11.3%

Away win 37.3% 50.0% 2.00 -25.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.7% 2.97 -6.2%

BTTS 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Home O1.5 37.8% 35.2% 2.84 +7.3%

Away O1.5 41.2% 51.3% 1.95 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xorazm1.3

Lokomotiv1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

XORAZM · PPG 1.62

LOKOMOTIV · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Xorazm (H) 36.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +20.4%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.3%

Lokomotiv (A) 37.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xorazm face Lokomotiv in Uzbekistan - Super League on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xorazm a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Lokomotiv 37%, so Lokomotiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Xorazm and 1.3 for Lokomotiv (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xorazm are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.11 for Lokomotiv. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Xorazm vs Lokomotiv Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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