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Qiziriq vs Metalourg Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 14:00

Qiziriq

PPG 0.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Metalourg

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Away 70% chance

xG gap -1.87 for Away, form 0.00 vs 1.29

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-19.4%0-212.2%0-310.5%0-4+12.8%1 1-02.6%1-16.8%1-28.8%1-37.6%1-4+9.2%2 2-00.9%2-12.5%2-23.2%2-32.8%2-4+3.4%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% — — —

Draw 16.4% — — —

Away win 69.8% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 39.4% — — —

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 30.6% — — —

Away O1.5 65.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.2%

#2 0–3✓ 10.5%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 1–1 6.8%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qiziriq0.7

Metalourg2.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

QIZIRIQ · PPG 0.00

METALOURG · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

70%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.87 for Away, form 0.00 vs 1.29

Win probability 1X2

Qiziriq (H) 13.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Metalourg (A) 69.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Qiziriq face Metalourg in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qiziriq a 14% chance, the draw 16% and Metalourg 70%, so Metalourg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Qiziriq and 2.6 for Metalourg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qiziriq are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Metalourg. This match finished 0-3.

Qiziriq vs Metalourg Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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