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Olimpik-Mobiuz vs Aral Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 12:00

Olimpik-Mobiuz

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Aral

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-112.8%0-28.8%0-34.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.4%1-112.8%1-28.8%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.7%2-16.4%2-24.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.6%3-12.1%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% — — —

Draw 28.6% — — —

Away win 42.8% — — —

Over 2.5 44.8% — — —

Over 3.5 26.8% — — —

BTTS 49.1% — — —

Home O1.5 30.6% — — —

Away O1.5 41.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpik-Mobiuz1.0

Aral1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIK-MOBIUZ · PPG 1.71

ARAL · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.37, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olimpik-Mobiuz (H) 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aral (A) 42.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpik-Mobiuz face Aral in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpik-Mobiuz a 29% chance, the draw 29% and Aral 43%, so Aral are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Olimpik-Mobiuz and 1.4 for Aral (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpik-Mobiuz are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 2.14 for Aral. This match finished 2-1.

Olimpik-Mobiuz vs Aral Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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