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Botafogo SP vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 23 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 00:30

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Criciuma

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-112.6%0-25.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.5%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.2%2-17.1%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.9%3-12.5%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 40.3% 2.48 -0.5%

Draw 32.0% 34.5% 2.90 -7.2%

Away win 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

Over 2.5 38.0% 38.5% 2.60 -1.2%

Over 3.5 18.4% 19.0% 5.25 -2.0%

BTTS 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 34.7% 2.88 -11.9%

Away O1.5 22.8% 29.4% 3.40 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.6%

#2 1–0 15.5%

#3 1–1✓ 13.4%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo SP1.1

Criciuma0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.70

CRICIUMA · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 1.92 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo SP (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -0.5%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -7.2%

Criciuma (A) 27.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo SP face Criciuma in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo SP a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Criciuma 28%, so Botafogo SP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Botafogo SP and 0.9 for Criciuma (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo SP are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.64 for Criciuma. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Botafogo SP vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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