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Cuiaba vs Operario-PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 23 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:30

Cuiaba

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Operario-PR

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-111.1%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.5%1-113.2%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-17.8%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.6%3-13.1%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 44.6% 2.24 +7.1%

Draw 27.3% 33.6% 2.98 -11.2%

Away win 24.9% 28.6% 3.50 -7.7%

Over 2.5 44.8% 37.0% 2.70 +21.0%

Over 3.5 26.4% 18.2% 5.50 +27.1%

BTTS 49.1% 46.5% 2.15 +5.6%

Home O1.5 32.4% 36.4% 2.75 -10.9%

Away O1.5 22.7% 25.6% 3.90 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.5%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 13.1%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cuiaba1.2

Operario-PR0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CUIABA · PPG 1.36

OPERARIO-PR · PPG 1.40

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cuiaba (H) 47.8%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV +7.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -11.2%

Operario-PR (A) 24.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cuiaba face Operario-PR in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cuiaba a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Operario-PR 25%, so Cuiaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cuiaba and 0.8 for Operario-PR (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cuiaba are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.40 for Operario-PR. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Cuiaba vs Operario-PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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