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Cucuta vs Internacional de Bogota Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:00

Cucuta

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Internacional de Bogota

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+38.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.4%0-22.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.0%1-19.2%1-26.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.0%3-16.6%3-24.3%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.5%4+-23.6%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 45.0% 2.22 +9.2%

Draw 22.2% 30.8% 3.25 -16.7%

Away win 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

Over 2.5 63.1% 45.5% 2.20 +38.8%

Over 3.5 39.4% 23.8% 4.20 +65.5%

BTTS 61.3% 52.4% 1.91 +17.1%

Home O1.5 59.6% 42.0% 2.38 +41.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 32.3% 3.10 +27.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.1%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cucuta2.1

Internacional de Bogota1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CUCUTA · PPG 1.33

INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cucuta (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +9.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.7%

Internacional de Bogota (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cucuta face Internacional de Bogota in Colombia - Primera A on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cucuta a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Internacional de Bogota 29%, so Cucuta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Cucuta and 1.3 for Internacional de Bogota (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cucuta are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.83 for Internacional de Bogota. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +65.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Cucuta vs Internacional de Bogota Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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