Today / Brazil - Serie B / Fortaleza EC vs São Bernardo

Fortaleza EC vs São Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 23 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 22:30

Fortaleza EC

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

São Bernardo

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.0%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.3%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 62.1% 1.61 -27.6%

Draw 26.4% 27.4% 3.65 -2.2%

Away win 28.6% 17.4% 5.75 +38.7%

Over 2.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Over 3.5 28.4% 26.0% 3.85 +5.6%

BTTS 53.0% 48.8% 2.05 +8.6%

Home O1.5 40.0% 54.1% 1.85 -26.0%

Away O1.5 32.4% 21.1% 4.75 +53.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza EC1.4

São Bernardo1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA EC · PPG 2.50

SÃO BERNARDO · PPG 1.90

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza EC (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -27.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.2%

São Bernardo (A) 28.6%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +38.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza EC face São Bernardo in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza EC a 45% chance, the draw 26% and São Bernardo 29%, so Fortaleza EC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Fortaleza EC and 1.0 for São Bernardo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza EC are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.90 for São Bernardo. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +53.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Fortaleza EC vs São Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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