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Avai vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 23 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 22:30

Avai

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Sport Recife

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-114.2%0-27.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.3%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.8%2-16.4%2-23.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.8%3-12.0%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 37.0% 2.70 -13.9%

Draw 30.8% 31.7% 3.15 -3.0%

Away win 37.3% 38.5% 2.60 -3.0%

Over 2.5 42.7% 46.5% 2.15 -8.2%

Over 3.5 20.6% 23.8% 4.20 -8.1%

BTTS 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 36.4% 2.75 -15.8%

Away O1.5 35.4% 37.7% 2.65 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.6%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 0–1 14.2%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avai0.9

Sport Recife1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AVAI · PPG 1.36

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.14, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Avai (H) 31.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.9%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -3.0%

Sport Recife (A) 37.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avai face Sport Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avai a 32% chance, the draw 31% and Sport Recife 37%, so Sport Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Avai and 1.1 for Sport Recife (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avai are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.60 for Sport Recife. This match finished 2-1.

Avai vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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