Today / Colombia - Primera A / Águilas Doradas vs Llaneros
Águilas Doradas vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A
Águilas Doradas
PPG 1.55 · HOME
Llaneros
PPG 1.18 · AWAY
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-014.8% 0-110.8% 0-24.0% 0-31.0% 0-4+0.2% 1 1-017.4% 1-112.8% 1-24.7% 1-31.1% 1-4+0.2% 2 2-010.3% 2-17.5% 2-22.8% 2-30.7% 2-4+0.1% 3 3-04.0% 3-13.0% 3-21.1% 3-30.3% 3-4+0.1% 4+ 4+-01.5% 4+-11.1% 4+-20.4% 4+-30.1% 4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW ▣ FT RESULT
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 46.3% 51.5% 1.94 -10.2%
Draw 28.4% 30.3% 3.30 -3.8%
Away win 25.2% 25.3% 3.95 -0.3%
Over 2.5 42.7% 48.8% 2.05 -12.5%
Over 3.5 20.6% 27.0% 3.70 -14.3%
BTTS 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%
Home O1.5 32.4% 47.6% 2.10 -32.0%
Away O1.5 17.9% 29.4% 3.40 -23.5%
League track record ↗
Based on 75 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 44%
O2.5 44%
BTTS 44%
Score Hit 48%
ROI 0.6%
Bet Hit 53%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
2 – 0 33% CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-1 xG (home) 1.2 xG (away) 0.7 BTTS prob 47.6%
H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 1–0 17.4%
#2 0–0 14.8%
#3 1–1✓ 12.8%
#4 0–1 10.8%
#5 2–0 10.3%
Form & verdict PPG
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v... HIGH_DRAW_RISK xG gap +0.45, combined xG 1.91 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Win probability 1X2
Águilas Doradas (H) 46.3%
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 24 matches · 2026 Águilas Doradas ▾ lower is better Llaneros
Attack
4.5 Shots outside box
4.6 32.8% Shooting accuracy
34.6% 31.1% Goals per shot on target
27.5% 1.01 xG for 18·19 of 24
0.85 Defence
4.2 Shots on target faced▾
3.6 1.29 Goals conceded▾
1.04 1.07 xG against▾ 18·19 of 24
1.26 Control
78.6% Pass accuracy
77.4% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction Águilas Doradas face Llaneros in Colombia - Primera A on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Águilas Doradas a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Llaneros 25%, so Águilas Doradas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Águilas Doradas and 0.7 for Llaneros (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Águilas Doradas are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.18 for Llaneros. This match finished 1-1.
Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 21:00
