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Tigres FC vs Envigado Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 19:00

Tigres FC

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Envigado

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-115.5%0-29.6%0-33.9%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.6%1-113.0%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-04.4%2-15.5%2-23.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.2%3-11.5%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

Draw 28.1% 35.1% 2.85 -11.9%

Away win 43.8% 42.9% 2.33 +2.1%

Over 2.5 42.7% 37.0% 2.70 +15.3%

Over 3.5 20.6% 19.2% 5.20 +4.3%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 28.2% 3.55 +8.6%

Away O1.5 37.3% 35.7% 2.80 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.6%

A 44% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.5%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 12.6%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–2 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigres FC0.8

Envigado1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGRES FC · PPG 1.17

ENVIGADO · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.39, combined xG 2.07 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tigres FC (H) 28.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.7%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -11.9%

Envigado (A) 43.8%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigres FC face Envigado in Colombia - Primera B on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigres FC a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Envigado 44%, so Envigado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Tigres FC and 1.2 for Envigado (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigres FC are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.00 for Envigado. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Tigres FC vs Envigado Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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