Today / Spain - La Liga / Mallorca vs Valencia

Mallorca vs Valencia Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 17:00

Mallorca

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Valencia

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 40.7% — a clear edge.

+50.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.8%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-19.7%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.7%3-16.8%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.5%4+-22.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.3% 40.7% 2.46 +50.8%

Draw 20.8% 31.7% 3.15 -34.5%

Away win 17.9% 34.5% 2.90 -48.1%

Over 2.5 58.7% 46.5% 2.15 +26.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 25.3% 3.95 +43.8%

BTTS 55.2% 54.1% 1.85 +2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.2%

H 61% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 10.0%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 1–1✓ 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mallorca2.0

Valencia1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MALLORCA · PPG 1.75

VALENCIA · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=61.3%

Win probability 1X2

Mallorca (H) 61.3%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +50.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -34.5%

Valencia (A) 17.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -48.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mallorca face Valencia in Spain - La Liga on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mallorca a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Valencia 18%, so Mallorca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Mallorca and 1.0 for Valencia (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mallorca are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Valencia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +50.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Mallorca vs Valencia Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - La Liga Predictions