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Spain - La Liga
Regular Season - 33
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix· Palma de Mallorca
Tuesday, April 21, 2026
17:00
Mallorca
PPG 1.75
1-1
HIT CS3
Valencia
PPG 0.75
Home· +50.8%
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
61.3%
Odds: 2.46
EV: +50.8%
Draw
20.8%
Odds: 3.15
EV: -34.5%
Away
17.9%
Odds: 2.90
EV: -48.1%
Model lean:
Home
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
58.7%
Odds: 2.15
+26.2%
Over 3.5
36.4%
Odds: 3.95
+43.8%
BTTS
55.2%
Odds: 1.85
+2.1%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
2-1
✘
2nd
2-0
✘
3rd
1-1
✔
4th
1-0
✘
5th
3-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Mallorca
2.04
Valencia
1.01
Model Suggestion
Home
+50.8%
ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market:
Home.
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=61.3%