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Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 17:00

Athletic Bilbao

PPG 1.63 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Osasuna

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.3%0-24.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.8%1-112.8%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-18.8%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.0%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 54.3% 1.84 -16.1%

Draw 27.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.2%

Away win 27.2% 22.5% 4.45 +21.0%

Over 2.5 42.4% 47.6% 2.10 -11.0%

Over 3.5 21.6% 27.0% 3.70 -20.1%

BTTS 47.2% 52.6% 1.90 -10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 12.8%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Bilbao1.4

Osasuna1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.4% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC BILBAO · PPG 1.63

OSASUNA · PPG 0.63

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=45.6%

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Bilbao (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -16.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.2%

Osasuna (A) 27.2%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Bilbao face Osasuna in Spain - La Liga on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Bilbao a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Osasuna 27%, so Athletic Bilbao are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Athletic Bilbao and 1.0 for Osasuna (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Bilbao are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.63 for Osasuna. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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