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Spain - La Liga logo Spain flag Spain - La Liga Regular Season - 33 San Mamés· Bilbao Tuesday, April 21, 2026 17:00
Athletic Bilbao logo Athletic Bilbao PPG 1.63
1-0 HIT MostLikelyScore
Osasuna logo Osasuna PPG 0.63
Away· +21.0% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.6%
Odds: 1.84 EV: -16.1%
Draw 27.2%
Odds: 3.30 EV: -10.2%
Away 27.2%
Odds: 4.45 EV: +21.0%
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 42.4% Odds: 2.10 -11.0%
Over 3.5 21.6% Odds: 3.70 -20.1%
BTTS 47.2% Odds: 1.90 -10.3%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 0-0
4th 0-1
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Athletic Bilbao
1.38
Osasuna
1.00

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=45.6%

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