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Spain - La Liga
Regular Season - 33
San Mamés· Bilbao
Tuesday, April 21, 2026
17:00
Athletic Bilbao
PPG 1.63
1-0
HIT MostLikelyScore
Osasuna
PPG 0.63
Away· +21.0%
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
45.6%
Odds: 1.84
EV: -16.1%
Draw
27.2%
Odds: 3.30
EV: -10.2%
Away
27.2%
Odds: 4.45
EV: +21.0%
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
42.4%
Odds: 2.10
-11.0%
Over 3.5
21.6%
Odds: 3.70
-20.1%
BTTS
47.2%
Odds: 1.90
-10.3%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔
BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-0
✔
2nd
1-1
✘
3rd
0-0
✘
4th
0-1
✘
5th
2-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Bilbao
1.38
Osasuna
1.00
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=45.6%