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Chacarita Juniors vs Club Atlético Güemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 21 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 18:00

Chacarita Juniors

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

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0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Club Atlético Güemes

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-17.2%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.2%1-110.7%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-18.0%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.2%3-14.0%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 56.5% 1.77 -6.4%

Draw 25.1% 32.3% 3.10 -13.3%

Away win 22.0% 21.7% 4.60 +0.7%

Over 2.5 43.8% 38.5% 2.60 +13.9%

Over 3.5 23.5% 20.0% 5.00 +10.5%

BTTS 47.6% 44.4% 2.25 +7.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 45.5% 2.20 -12.0%

Away O1.5 16.4% 21.1% 4.75 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.2%

#2 2–0 14.4%

#3 0–0✓ 12.9%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 0–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chacarita Juniors1.5

Club Atlético Güemes0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.8% · O3.5 PROB 23.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHACARITA JUNIORS · PPG 1.82

CLUB ATLÉTICO GÜEMES · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chacarita Juniors (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -6.4%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.3%

Club Atlético Güemes (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chacarita Juniors face Club Atlético Güemes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chacarita Juniors a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Club Atlético Güemes 22%, so Chacarita Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chacarita Juniors and 0.6 for Club Atlético Güemes (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chacarita Juniors are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.50 for Club Atlético Güemes. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Chacarita Juniors vs Club Atlético Güemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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